03/12/2006 The Indian Strategy?

Manmohan singh visits US in Sep '05, asks US to support India's UNSC permanent seat bid. US says "no" but offers nuclear fuel support (which it knows has to get approved by the congress and hence not a done deal). India says it can find its own energy source and proves it through the Iran-Pak-India and Burma-Bangladesh-India pipelines. It also twists western arms by planning to open Nathula pass showing signs of getting closer to China whose defense spending grew to about $100 Billion this year. US plays its cards and sells F-16s to Pak thinking India will follow antagonising China by doing so. India plays an ACE here by asking Prat & Whitney to either transfer the technology or lose the deal to French Mirage. With democratically elected president in Iran and smooth transition of power, a strong influence in the region appears in the making. West doesn't want yet another variable in the equation; blames Iranian nuclear energy pursuit to bomb making spree. This in the hope that Iran will be alienated and India will suspend its pipeline project, thereby getting India back into its fold. India, however, doesn't budge and US couldn't ignore India with its sound civilian nuclear technology and its good relations with Iran. It gets serious with the nuclear fuel deal in return for Iran's referral to UNSC. India buys it knowing that China or Russia will surely Veto any military action against Iran. Since UNSC permanent seat is the only strong card left with the US, it delays the voting on it until after the Iran episode is over in order to hold the strong card longer. India continues to hurt US business by Indian Airlines buying aircrafts from Airbus instead of Boeing. In the meanwhile, another headache appears with Hamas winning Palestinian elections and Europe & Arabic world agreeing to support it as Hamas gives a visit to Russia. US plays another card, President visits India, agrees upon the nuclear fuel deal (still knowing it's not a done deal) and makes a U-turn on the Iran-Pak-India pipeline (knowing it can still influence the pipeline through Pak). This (pipeline) also gives US a bargaining card with Iran to control Iranian support to Hamas. India still wants a permanent seat in UNSC and hence it will keep the deal success/failure a low key affair and should play its card soon. keep watching.